Method guide · Progress through phases
Anonymous Iterative Forecast Round
Use two anonymous response rounds to examine how views change, why they change, and where differences remain.
- People
- 6–30
- Base procedure time
- 120 minutes
- Recording
- Shared record
Purpose: Generate ideas; Organise and narrow ideas; Make a decision.
English guide
Text acceptance is not approval of this rendered page, its media, or publication.
How this method works
A method for recording movement in views and reasons through two anonymous response rounds. Use it when people defer to high-status speakers, minority views quickly disappear in simultaneous discussion, or experts' assessments are put to a vote after only one round. The facilitator returns distributions and reasons by issue without naming respondents, and participants read others' grounds before maintaining or changing their responses. The result is two rounds' distributions, issues that changed, reasons that still differ, and information to collect next. Do not use it for a vote forcing agreement or a final approval where respondents' responsibility must not be concealed. Explain the scope of anonymity and how responses will be used to everyone before starting.
Phase schedule
Minutes are cumulative from the start of the base plan, not a live timer. Read scaling for any additional time. Phase controls do not advance automatically.
Use the arrow keys, Home or End while these controls have focus. The complete phase schedule remains below, including without JavaScript.
- Define the focus0–10 minutes from the start (10 minutes)
Action: Define. Participation: Everyone.
Recording not separately specified for this phase
- Answer the first round10–35 minutes from the start (25 minutes)
Action: Answer. Participation: Individually.
Individual record
- Return the distribution35–55 minutes from the start (20 minutes)
Action: Return. Participation: Facilitator.
Shared record
- Reconsider in round two55–80 minutes from the start (25 minutes)
Action: Reconsider. Participation: Individually.
Individual record
- Decide what happens next80–120 minutes from the start (40 minutes)
Action: Decide. Participation: Everyone.
Shared record
Facilitation steps
- For 10 minutes, define and display in one sentence the issue to judge and how the responses will be used.
- For 5 minutes, the facilitator gives out participant numbers and explains the scope of anonymity and who can view records.
- For 20 minutes, each person writes a first-round response, confidence level, and reasoning on a numbered-only sheet.
- For 20 minutes, the facilitator aggregates response distributions and differences in reasoning by issue on strips, without seeing names.
- For 10 minutes, each person reads the distribution strips, selects one reason different from their own, and notes it.
- For 25 minutes, each person writes a second-round response and one sentence explaining why they maintained or changed it.
- For 30 minutes, examine movement across the two rounds and remaining differences, and separately record issues to decide and issues for additional research.
If something changes
If
Fifteen minutes after first-round collection begins, completed sheets cover less than 80% of participants.
Then
Tell non-respondents individually that 5 minutes remain and they may leave a response blank, and extend the collection time once only.
If
Ten minutes after distributions are returned, there are no second-round reasons for change across all participants.
Then
Redisplay only the two most distant reasons and have each person write one piece of counter-evidence before responding again.
Preparation
Materials
- Two anonymous response sheets per person, with participant number only
- One aggregation distribution strip per issue, with a reasons field
- One dark-coloured writing implement per person
- One collection envelope per round
Room and setup
- One writing seat per participant where others' responses are not visible
- One aggregation surface handled only by the facilitator
- Response groups of 6–10 people, with no more than 10 per group
Adjust for people and time
Do not use the method with fewer than 6 people, as it is difficult to anonymise and compare distributions. Up to 10, work as one group. With 11–30, divide into groups of no more than 10 and have the facilitator combine group distributions on the same scale. With 30 people, retain up to 3 reasons per issue from the three groups, and do not create a table linking individual numbers to names.
Safety and non-applicable situations
Explain anonymity, record viewers, and intended use beforehand. Allow non-response, keep names out of aggregation, and do not make a number-to-name table. Do not force agreement or use anonymity where final approval requires identifiable responsibility.
Historical translation and source notes
These original notes are retained verbatim with their fixed source versions. This historical label does not resolve a source-specific concern or establish current acceptance.
- Setup specifies response groups of 6–10, while scaling permits any group up to 10 for 11–30 participants; for 11 people, two groups cannot both contain 6. Both instructions remain without a new grouping rule.
- The 10-minute reading step occurs before the 25-minute second response, but the phase table assigns 25 minutes to second-round reconsideration and 40 to the final phase. Step and phase totals both remain 120; no new chronological phase allocation is invented.
- The first branch allows one collection-time extension but does not revise the 120-minute total. No revised duration is invented.
Manuscript's recorded references
These translate the original manuscript's source and rights claims. They remain separate from any current-page notice below; they do not establish new verification.
- Government Office for Science: Delphi
Adaptation under OGL 3.0; changes made
- OGL 3.0
https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/
- The original method name ‘Delphi’ is used descriptively to identify the source.
Current-page licence notice
A Taiwa no Fumen adaptation based on the UK government publication identified below. Any separately stated terms apply to the material they identify.
Changes: timings, instructions, materials and branches have been edited for this site. The English edition translates the Japanese manuscript, not the government text verbatim.
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
This notice does not grant blanket rights to third-party works, personal data, organisational logos or trademarks.
This is not an official or government-endorsed method.
See the licence for its no-warranty and other terms.
© Crown copyright 2024
Credits on the checked source page
- Published by: Government Office for Science
- Produced in collaboration with: SAMI Consulting
Source page checked on 2026-10-17: The Futures Toolkit HTML.
Source lineage
Open Government Licence v3.0 · Legal code · Official source policy
This material-specific notice does not itself establish publication clearance. Preserved manuscript references above remain separate from the current page's credits and licence evidence.
Diagram, print, and video language
Original Japanese guide, diagram, and print view. Their labels and print text have not been translated; an English print edition is not provided here.
English video-library navigation. Original Japanese audio, subtitles and transcripts remain labelled Japanese resources. Their translations are separate later work. No remote player is embedded here.
The manual English phase controls are a navigation aid, not a live facilitation timer. Interactive diagram motion remains pending.
Editorial provenance
Japanese source status and logs are provenance only. They do not mean this English text or interface was field-tested. Historical fixed-text acceptance and hold records remain specific to their recorded versions; displaying them neither asserts current acceptance nor resolves source-specific restrictions.