Method guide · Arrange people and ideas
Driver Mapping
Map directional relationships between drivers and distinguish influence from uncertainty when choosing what to explore next.
- People
- 4–30
- Base procedure time
- 90 minutes
- Recording
- Shared record
Purpose: Generate ideas; Make a decision.
English guide
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How this method works
A method for connecting drivers with directional lines and choosing priority areas for exploration. Use it when drivers remain a long list, correlations are asserted as causes, or uncertain changes are excluded by judging only importance. Participants write one driver per card and state for each arrow what changes when one driver moves first. Use separate markers for drivers strongly influencing the centre and drivers with highly uncertain prospects; explore those high on both next. The result is driver cards with evidence, directional lines, possible loops, priority drivers, and observation owners. Do not use it as proof of causality or to assert policy effects from relationship lines alone.
Phase schedule
Minutes are cumulative from the start of the base plan, not a live timer. Read scaling for any additional time. Phase controls do not advance automatically.
Use the arrow keys, Home or End while these controls have focus. The complete phase schedule remains below, including without JavaScript.
- Place the central change0–10 minutes from the start (10 minutes)
Action: Place. Participation: Everyone.
Recording not separately specified for this phase
- Expand the drivers10–30 minutes from the start (20 minutes)
Action: Expand. Participation: Individually.
Individual record
- Connect relationships30–50 minutes from the start (20 minutes)
Action: Connect. Participation: Groups of 3–5.
Shared record
- Compare strength50–70 minutes from the start (20 minutes)
Action: Compare. Participation: Groups of 3–5.
Shared record
- Set priorities70–90 minutes from the start (20 minutes)
Action: Set. Participation: Everyone.
Shared record
Facilitation steps
- For 10 minutes, write the central change in one sentence and note the scope and future period outside the working surface.
- For 15 minutes, each person writes up to 5 evidence-supported drivers that could move the central change and places them around it.
- For 5 minutes, stack only cards with the same meaning; leave cards based on different evidence alongside rather than merging them.
- For 20 minutes, connect only relationships where one changes first with arrows and write the direction of change above each arrow.
- For 20 minutes, use large/small rings to mark influence on the centre and the number of markers to show each driver's uncertainty.
- For 20 minutes, select up to 3 drivers high in both influence and uncertainty and record who will observe them.
If something changes
If
Eight minutes into drawing relationships, there are fewer than 3 arrows.
Then
Choose one driver directly linked to the central change, add one change that precedes it, and connect the two links.
If
Ten minutes into assessment, 80% or more of all drivers have been placed at high influence.
Then
Imagine one situation in which the central change does not occur and return only drivers that still remain to high influence.
Preparation
Materials
- Five driver cards per person, with an evidence field
- Twelve one-way arrow strips per group
- Two influence rings per group, large and small
- Three uncertainty markers per person
- One dark-coloured writing implement per person
Room and setup
- One island table per group of 3–5, with group sizes differing by no more than 1 person
- One circular surface per group for the central change
- One whole-group surface for bringing priority drivers together
Adjust for people and time
Do not use the method with fewer than 4 people, as it is difficult to compare alternative relationships. With 4–5, share one surface. With 6–30, form groups of 3–5 differing by no more than 1 person and make driver maps. Each group transfers 2 priority drivers and 1 evidence line to the whole-group surface. With 30 people, display 12 drivers from six groups and merge only drivers appearing in at least 3 groups.
Safety and non-applicable situations
Keep evidence differences and uncertainty visible. Relationship arrows do not prove causes or policy effects; do not treat the map as causal verification.
Manuscript's recorded references
These translate the original manuscript's source and rights claims. They remain separate from any current-page notice below; they do not establish new verification.
- Government Office for Science: Driver Mapping
Adaptation under OGL 3.0; changes made
- OGL 3.0
https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/
Current-page licence notice
A Taiwa no Fumen adaptation based on the UK government publication identified below. Any separately stated terms apply to the material they identify.
Changes: timings, instructions, materials and branches have been edited for this site. The English edition translates the Japanese manuscript, not the government text verbatim.
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
This notice does not grant blanket rights to third-party works, personal data, organisational logos or trademarks.
This is not an official or government-endorsed method.
See the licence for its no-warranty and other terms.
© Crown copyright 2024
Credits on the checked source page
- Published by: Government Office for Science
- Produced in collaboration with: SAMI Consulting
Source page checked on 2026-10-17: The Futures Toolkit HTML.
Source lineage
Open Government Licence v3.0 · Legal code · Official source policy
This material-specific notice does not itself establish publication clearance. Preserved manuscript references above remain separate from the current page's credits and licence evidence.
Diagram, print, and video language
Original Japanese guide, diagram, and print view. Their labels and print text have not been translated; an English print edition is not provided here.
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Editorial provenance
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