Method guide · Arrange people and ideas
Futures Wheel
Explore first, second, and more distant consequences of one change, making causal leaps and missing conditions visible.
- People
- 4–30
- Base procedure time
- 60 minutes
- Recording
- Shared record
Purpose: Generate ideas; Make a decision.
English guide
Text acceptance is not approval of this rendered page, its media, or publication.
How this method works
A method for branching first-order, second-order, and distant effects from one change. Use it when direct and ripple effects are mixed, only positive or only negative effects are considered, or causal jumps straight to conclusions are accepted. Participants fix the starting point in one sentence, first propose immediate changes, and then connect next-stage effects to each one. Mark lines that skip stages as leaps and add intermediate conditions so the chains can be examined. The result is a three-stage effect map, causal reasons, leap locations, and important chains to watch. Do not use it to assert future events as predictions or treat causal relationships as empirically established evaluation findings.
Phase schedule
Minutes are cumulative from the start of the base plan, not a live timer. Read scaling for any additional time. Phase controls do not advance automatically.
Use the arrow keys, Home or End while these controls have focus. The complete phase schedule remains below, including without JavaScript.
- Place the starting point0–5 minutes from the start (5 minutes)
Action: Place. Participation: Everyone.
Recording not separately specified for this phase
- Extend first-order effects5–17 minutes from the start (12 minutes)
Action: Extend. Participation: Groups of 3–6.
Shared record
- Branch second-order effects17–32 minutes from the start (15 minutes)
Action: Branch. Participation: Groups of 3–6.
Shared record
- Explore distant effects32–47 minutes from the start (15 minutes)
Action: Explore. Participation: Groups of 3–6.
Shared record
- Choose chains47–60 minutes from the start (13 minutes)
Action: Choose. Participation: Everyone.
Shared record
Facilitation steps
- For 5 minutes, write the change under consideration in one sentence on the starting-point card and align the assumed period and subject.
- For 12 minutes, each group of 3–6 proposes up to 4 immediate first-order effects and connects them with causal strips carrying reasons.
- For 15 minutes, propose up to 2 second-order effects following each first-order effect and branch them from the preceding card.
- For 15 minutes, select up to 4 effects that appear after a delay from second-order effects and connect them in the third stage.
- For 6 minutes, mark lines skipping intermediate stages and add one condition card showing what makes each such line hold.
- For 7 minutes, compare scope of impact and how easily effects are overlooked, and record 2 chains to watch and the evidence to check.
If something changes
If
Eight minutes into first-order effects, a group has fewer than 2 cards.
Then
Read through affected people, things, institutions, and environment in order, and add one effect from an unused subject.
If
Ten minutes into second-order effects, more than half of all causal strips return directly to the starting point.
Then
Remove lines returning to the starting point and insert one intervening action or condition to separate stages.
Preparation
Materials
- One starting-point card per group, with a target-period field
- Sixteen effect cards per group, with a stage field
- Sixteen causal strips per group, with arrows
- Two leap markers per person
- Two chain slips per group
- One dark-coloured writing implement per person
Room and setup
- One island table per group of 3–6
- One radial surface per group with space to branch from the starting point through three stages
- One whole-group outer band for collecting important chains
Adjust for people and time
Do not use the method with fewer than 4 people, as it is difficult to compare alternative effect chains. With 4–30, divide into groups of no more than 6 differing in size by no more than 1 person, so each group has 3–6. Each group transfers 2 important chains to the outer band. With 30 people, display 10 chains from five groups and do not merge chains with different intermediate conditions even if they share a starting point.
Safety and non-applicable situations
Keep intermediate conditions and causal leaps visible. This exploration is not a prediction or empirical proof of causality; retain different chains rather than merging away their conditions.
Historical translation and source notes
These original notes are retained verbatim with their fixed source versions. This historical label does not resolve a source-specific concern or establish current acceptance.
- The maximum first-, second-, and third-stage effects can use all 16 effect cards, while leap repair can require an additional card. The source does not specify extra stock or replacement; no rule is invented.
- Scaling specifies groups of 3–6 through a maximum of 6 and balanced sizes but does not give the group-count formula. Both statements are retained without a new allocation algorithm.
Manuscript's recorded references
These translate the original manuscript's source and rights claims. They remain separate from any current-page notice below; they do not establish new verification.
- Government Office for Science: Futures Wheel
Adaptation under OGL 3.0; changes made
- OGL 3.0
https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/
Current-page licence notice
A Taiwa no Fumen adaptation based on the UK government publication identified below. Any separately stated terms apply to the material they identify.
Changes: timings, instructions, materials and branches have been edited for this site. The English edition translates the Japanese manuscript, not the government text verbatim.
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
This notice does not grant blanket rights to third-party works, personal data, organisational logos or trademarks.
This is not an official or government-endorsed method.
See the licence for its no-warranty and other terms.
© Crown copyright 2024
Credits on the checked source page
- Published by: Government Office for Science
- Produced in collaboration with: SAMI Consulting
Source page checked on 2026-10-17: The Futures Toolkit HTML.
Source lineage
Open Government Licence v3.0 · Legal code · Official source policy
This material-specific notice does not itself establish publication clearance. Preserved manuscript references above remain separate from the current page's credits and licence evidence.
Diagram, print, and video language
Original Japanese guide, diagram, and print view. Their labels and print text have not been translated; an English print edition is not provided here.
English video-library navigation. Original Japanese audio, subtitles and transcripts remain labelled Japanese resources. Their translations are separate later work. No remote player is embedded here.
The manual English phase controls are a navigation aid, not a live facilitation timer. Interactive diagram motion remains pending.
Editorial provenance
Japanese source status and logs are provenance only. They do not mean this English text or interface was field-tested. Historical fixed-text acceptance and hold records remain specific to their recorded versions; displaying them neither asserts current acceptance nor resolves source-specific restrictions.