Method guide · Progress through phases
Horizon Scanning
Gather signals of change and prioritise further observation using sources, novelty, impact, and uncertainty.
- People
- 4–30
- Base procedure time
- 90 minutes
- Recording
- Shared record
Purpose: Generate ideas; Make a decision.
English guide
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How this method works
A method for gathering signals of change and deciding what to explore next through sources and three criteria. Use it when plans consider only familiar major trends, unusual stories are adopted without evidence, or information gathering stops at making lists. Participants bring observed changes, one per card, separate facts from inferences, and cluster related signals while keeping their differing origins visible. Choose clusters to follow using novelty, anticipated impact, and uncertainty. The result is sourced signals, provisional cluster titles, reasons for prioritisation, and the next observer and deadline. Do not use it to assert a future from one signal or bring confidential information without checking who may see it.
Phase schedule
Minutes are cumulative from the start of the base plan, not a live timer. Read scaling for any additional time. Phase controls do not advance automatically.
Use the arrow keys, Home or End while these controls have focus. The complete phase schedule remains below, including without JavaScript.
- Set the scanning scope0–10 minutes from the start (10 minutes)
Action: Set. Participation: Everyone.
Recording not separately specified for this phase
- Collect signals10–30 minutes from the start (20 minutes)
Action: Collect. Participation: Individually.
Individual record
- Check origins30–50 minutes from the start (20 minutes)
Action: Check. Participation: Groups of 3–6.
Shared record
- Cluster signals50–70 minutes from the start (20 minutes)
Action: Cluster. Participation: Groups of 3–6.
Shared record
- Decide the observation order70–90 minutes from the start (20 minutes)
Action: Decide. Participation: Everyone.
Shared record
Facilitation steps
- For 10 minutes, define the scanning domain, future period, and permitted information scope in one sentence each.
- For 15 minutes, each person writes up to 4 recently observed small changes with sources and dates.
- For 5 minutes, move cards whose sources cannot be explained to pending and put facts and inferences on separate lines.
- For 20 minutes, cluster related signals within each group. Give provisional titles only to clusters with at least 2 different sources.
- For 20 minutes, each person places one set of novelty, impact, and uncertainty stickers on each cluster.
- For 20 minutes, choose up to 3 clusters high on the 3 criteria and record an observer, next information source, and deadline.
If something changes
If
Ten minutes after signal collection begins, cards with sources and dates average fewer than 2 per person.
Then
Read the 4 domains of products, institutions, behaviour, and language in turn, then add one card containing only an observed fact.
If
Twelve minutes into clustering, more than half of all cards are concentrated in one cluster.
Then
Split it in two by source type or affected people and rewrite provisional titles to include a verb.
Preparation
Materials
- 4 signal cards per person, with source and date fields
- 3 sets of three-criterion stickers per person: novelty, impact, and uncertainty
- One long sheet for clustering per group
- One dark-coloured pen per person
Room and setup
- One island table per group of 3–6, with group sizes differing by no more than 1 person
- One whole-group surface showing the 3 criteria of novelty, impact, and uncertainty
- One pending area for cards whose sources cannot be identified
Adjust for people and time
Do not run this method with fewer than 4 people, because signals from different sources cannot readily be compared. With 4–6, work as one group. With 7–30, form groups of 3–6 with sizes differing by no more than 1. Each transfers up to 3 highly rated clusters to the whole-group surface. With 30 people, arrange 15 clusters from 5 groups and exclude clusters based only on the same source from priority candidates.
Safety and non-applicable situations
Keep facts separate from inferences and sources visible. Put unsourced signals on hold. Do not predict the future from one signal or share confidential information without checking the permitted audience.
Manuscript's recorded references
These translate the original manuscript's source and rights claims. They remain separate from any current-page notice below; they do not establish new verification.
- Government Office for Science: Horizon Scanning
Adaptation under OGL 3.0; changes made
- OGL 3.0
https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/
Current-page licence notice
A Taiwa no Fumen adaptation based on the UK government publication identified below. Any separately stated terms apply to the material they identify.
Changes: timings, instructions, materials and branches have been edited for this site. The English edition translates the Japanese manuscript, not the government text verbatim.
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
This notice does not grant blanket rights to third-party works, personal data, organisational logos or trademarks.
This is not an official or government-endorsed method.
See the licence for its no-warranty and other terms.
© Crown copyright 2024
Credits on the checked source page
- Published by: Government Office for Science
- Produced in collaboration with: SAMI Consulting
Source page checked on 2026-10-17: The Futures Toolkit HTML.
Source lineage
Open Government Licence v3.0 · Legal code · Official source policy
This material-specific notice does not itself establish publication clearance. Preserved manuscript references above remain separate from the current page's credits and licence evidence.
Diagram, print, and video language
Original Japanese guide, diagram, and print view. Their labels and print text have not been translated; an English print edition is not provided here.
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Editorial provenance
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