Method guide · Arrange people and ideas
Three Horizons
Connect present functions, transition experiments, and future states without discarding what must be preserved now.
- People
- 4–30
- Base procedure time
- 90 minutes
- Recording
- Shared record
Purpose: Generate ideas; Make a decision.
English guide
Text acceptance is not approval of this rendered page, its media, or publication.
How this method works
A method for arranging present, transition, and future in three areas and choosing bridges between them. Use it when a future vision is disconnected from the present, existing institutions are rejected wholesale, or experiments have no clear direction. For the present, separate functions to preserve from points of stagnation; for the future, describe desired states in terms of how systems work. In the transition area, place actions that test future states without undermining current functions. The result is elements in the three areas, conflicting combinations, connecting strips between areas, and a first bridging action. Do not use it to predict dates or unilaterally pressure the people maintaining current functions to end them.
Phase schedule
Minutes are cumulative from the start of the base plan, not a live timer. Read scaling for any additional time. Phase controls do not advance automatically.
Use the arrow keys, Home or End while these controls have focus. The complete phase schedule remains below, including without JavaScript.
- Set the three areas0–10 minutes from the start (10 minutes)
Action: Set. Participation: Everyone.
Recording not separately specified for this phase
- Read the present10–30 minutes from the start (20 minutes)
Action: Read. Participation: Groups of 3–6.
Shared record
- Describe the future30–50 minutes from the start (20 minutes)
Action: Describe. Participation: Groups of 3–6.
Shared record
- Connect the transition50–75 minutes from the start (25 minutes)
Action: Connect. Participation: Groups of 3–6.
Shared record
- Choose a bridge75–90 minutes from the start (15 minutes)
Action: Choose. Participation: Everyone.
Shared record
Facilitation steps
- For 10 minutes, divide the long sheet into present, transition, and future and write the subject and period along its top edge.
- For 15 minutes, write functions sustaining the present and points of stagnation on separate cards and place them in the present area.
- For 5 minutes, mark present functions to retain and write one sentence stating conditions that must not be lost.
- For 20 minutes, write desired future states in terms of how systems work and place them in the future area.
- For 25 minutes, choose pairs of present and future cards and place trials addressing both in the transition area.
- For 15 minutes, choose one first trial and responsible person from proposals whose connecting strips span at least 2 areas.
If something changes
If
Twelve minutes after writing in the present area begins, no functions have been marked for retention.
Then
Identify one thing users can currently do without difficulty and add that function as a condition to preserve.
If
Fifteen minutes after transition discussion begins, no connecting strips link 2 areas.
Then
Choose one future card and rewrite it as the smallest trial that changes the current system for just 1 week.
Preparation
Materials
- One long sheet per group spanning present, transition, and future
- 5 element cards per person, with area-code fields
- 3 connecting strips per group long enough to span 2 areas
- One dark-coloured pen per person
Room and setup
- One island table per group of 3–6, with sizes differing by no more than 1 person
- One floor or tabletop surface per group showing present, transition, and future from left to right
- One whole-group bridging area
Adjust for people and time
Do not run this method with fewer than 4 people, because perspectives on the 3 areas cannot readily be compared. With 4–6, share one surface. With 7–30, form groups of 3–6 with sizes differing by no more than 1 and make three-area diagrams. Each transfers one connecting strip to the whole-group area. With 30 people, arrange 5 connections and bundle only bridges leading to the same future card.
Safety and non-applicable situations
Preserve current functions and conditions that must not be lost while testing future states. Do not treat the exercise as predicting dates or force current practitioners to end their work unilaterally.
Historical translation and source notes
These original notes are retained verbatim with their fixed source versions. This historical label does not resolve a source-specific concern or establish current acceptance.
- The first branch checks for retention marks 12 minutes after present-area writing starts, while the steps allocate 15 minutes to writing before a separate 5-minute marking step. This draft preserves the original timing instead of moving the branch or marking step.
Manuscript's recorded references
These translate the original manuscript's source and rights claims. They remain separate from any current-page notice below; they do not establish new verification.
- Government Office for Science: Three Horizons
Adaptation under OGL 3.0; changes made
- OGL 3.0
https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/
Current-page licence notice
A Taiwa no Fumen adaptation based on the UK government publication identified below. Any separately stated terms apply to the material they identify.
Changes: timings, instructions, materials and branches have been edited for this site. The English edition translates the Japanese manuscript, not the government text verbatim.
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
This notice does not grant blanket rights to third-party works, personal data, organisational logos or trademarks.
This is not an official or government-endorsed method.
See the licence for its no-warranty and other terms.
© Crown copyright 2024
Credits on the checked source page
- Published by: Government Office for Science
- Produced in collaboration with: SAMI Consulting
Source page checked on 2026-10-17: The Futures Toolkit HTML.
Source lineage
Open Government Licence v3.0 · Legal code · Official source policy
This material-specific notice does not itself establish publication clearance. Preserved manuscript references above remain separate from the current page's credits and licence evidence.
Diagram, print, and video language
Original Japanese guide, diagram, and print view. Their labels and print text have not been translated; an English print edition is not provided here.
English video-library navigation. Original Japanese audio, subtitles and transcripts remain labelled Japanese resources. Their translations are separate later work. No remote player is embedded here.
The manual English phase controls are a navigation aid, not a live facilitation timer. Interactive diagram motion remains pending.
Editorial provenance
Japanese source status and logs are provenance only. They do not mean this English text or interface was field-tested. Historical fixed-text acceptance and hold records remain specific to their recorded versions; displaying them neither asserts current acceptance nor resolves source-specific restrictions.