Strategy and priorities
Turn Uncertain Strategy into Reversible Choices
Examine strategic proposals under multiple external situations and clarify evidence gaps and withdrawal conditions.
- People
- 6–20
- Session time
- 225 minutes
- Format
- In person
English session plan
Original program status: draft. Source safety category: Medium; this is not a guarantee of safety.
Preparation: High preparation. Facilitation team: Four roles, including an experienced facilitator.
What this session can decide
Propose trial candidates, evidence needed and conditions for reversing course. Refer large investments and regulatory judgements for formal review.
Outside its scope
- Do not assert future probabilities as established.
- Do not approve irreversible investments.
- Do not judge regulatory compliance.
Primary caution: Do not assert future probabilities as established.
Before starting
- Question and scope
- Examine strategic proposals under multiple external situations and clarify evidence gaps and withdrawal conditions. Before the session starts, state the subject and period to be covered in one sentence.
- What is decided here
- Propose trial candidates, evidence needed and conditions for reversing course. Refer large investments and regulatory judgements for formal review.
- Output recipient
- At the end, the Recorder retains “Comparison of options that can be tested and reversed”. Show decision-makers the trial scope, observation indicators and conditions for reversing course.
- Participation and information boundaries
- Explain that people may pass, rest or leave, and keep personal information, confidential information and judgements about attributes off the recording surface. Assign Participant support separately.
- Operating team
- Assign the Lead facilitator, Recorder, Timekeeper and Participant support before starting, and confirm who announces transitions and stops.
- Next check
- Decide the review date for “Comparison of options that can be tested and reversed”, who may view it and who is responsible for the next decision.
Who takes responsibility
- Lead facilitator
Keep “Turn Uncertain Strategy into Reversible Choices” within its purpose and stated exclusions, and announce the start and end of each stage.
From before the start until the session ends.
- Recorder
Record “Four scenarios”, “List of evidence gaps”, “Comparison of options that can be tested and reversed” at each stage and hand the records to their recipients at the end.
From preparation of recording surfaces before the start through storage after the session.
- Timekeeper
Notify the Lead facilitator 3 minutes before each stage ends and when switching to breaks or buffer time.
At the start of every stage and 3 minutes before its end.
- Participant support
Receive requests to pass, rest, leave or check individually, and decide with the Lead facilitator whether resumption is possible.
From before the start until the session ends.
Session flow
Minutes are measured from the session start. Method time, transition time, breaks and buffer are shown separately; they are not additional overlapping activities.
0–123 minutes
Develop different external situations
Method: Scenario Matrix · 0–120 minutes. Transition: 120–123 minutes (3 minutes).
Select 2 uncertain axes with high impact and describe 4 situations. Add observable signs for each situation and distinguish desirability from prediction.
Responsible: Lead facilitator; Recorder; Participant support
Output: Four scenarios
Handoff: Pass hypotheses that determine success or failure in each scenario to the stage that organises evidence gaps and checking methods.
This stage may be shortened only in accordance with the stated conditions.
123–156 minutes
Separate evidence gaps
Method: Evidence Gap Board · 123–153 minutes. Transition: 153–156 minutes (3 minutes).
Write strategic assumptions one at a time and classify them as known, assumed or unknown. For unknowns, record information sources, responsibility and a checking deadline.
Responsible: Lead facilitator; Recorder; Participant support
Output: List of evidence gaps
Handoff: Pass important unknowns to the stage that sets trial scope and withdrawal conditions.
This stage is not marked as shortenable.
166–194 minutes
Set trial and withdrawal conditions
Method: Reversible Choice Board · 166–191 minutes. Transition: 191–194 minutes (3 minutes).
Separate options into reversible and difficult to reverse. For reversible options, set a minimum trial and withdrawal conditions; send difficult-to-reverse options for specialist review.
Responsible: Lead facilitator; Recorder; Participant support
Output: Comparison of options that can be tested and reversed
Handoff: Pass the comparison of options that can be tested and reversed to strategic decision-makers and the people responsible for evidence collection.
This stage is not marked as shortenable.
What is retained and who receives it
Four scenarios
Owner: Recorder
Provide a framework for comparing strategic proposals under different conditions.
List of evidence gaps
Owner: Recorder
Record what is known, assumed and unknown, and how to check it, for each strategic proposal.
Comparison of options that can be tested and reversed
Owner: Recorder
Show decision-makers the trial scope, observation indicators and conditions for reversing course.
Materials and setup
Material names, quantities, groups and handling instructions retain the fixed draft's original helper-derived guidance. Where a format is marked “Source material specification”, the entire bound English source material entry takes precedence over the old helper-derived format guidance. This format-only correction does not resolve other instruction or safety concerns. English names are not substituted into a Japanese-keyed lookup.
Everyday tools
- Pens
Quantity: 1 per person
Format: Dark broad-tip pens or whiteboard markers
Check that the ink flows and place the pens where participants can reach them. Avoid pale-coloured pens.
- Judgement-item sticky notes
Quantity: 4 per person
Format: Sticky notes around 75 × 75 mm, or A4 copy paper cut into four pieces.
Do not buy specialised notes. Write “Judgement item” at the top of each paper slip. If participants write on them, use one item per slip and handwrite the necessary headings before the session starts.
- Pens
Quantity: 1 per person
Format: Dark broad-tip pens or whiteboard markers
Check that the ink flows and place the pens where participants can reach them. Avoid pale-coloured pens.
- Selection sticky notes
Quantity: 3 per person
Format: Sticky notes around 75 × 75 mm, or A4 copy paper cut into four pieces.
Do not buy specialised notes. Write “Selection” at the top of each paper slip. If participants write on them, use one item per slip and handwrite the necessary headings before the session starts.
Sheets to prepare by hand
- Uncertainty cards
Quantity: 6 per person
Format: Sticky notes around 75 × 75 mm, or A4 copy paper cut into four pieces.
Write a factor whose future is uncertain in the centre. Below it, create two endpoint fields: “Observable state at one end” and “Observable state at the opposite end”. Describe states that can actually be distinguished, rather than good and bad.
- Surface for creating four futures from two uncertainties
Quantity: 1 sheet per group
Format: Source material specification: One two-axis cross sheet per group, approximately A2 size
Source-bound format display correction; the other fixed helper-derived guidance is unchanged.
Draw vertical and horizontal axes that cross in the centre. Write the two poles of the selected uncertainty A at the ends of the horizontal axis and the two poles of uncertainty B at the ends of the vertical axis. Leave room in the four quadrants for future descriptions and signs.
- Sticky notes describing how life, decisions and resources change in four futures
Quantity: 12 per group
Format: Sticky notes around 75 × 75 mm, or A4 copy paper cut into four pieces.
For each of the four futures, prepare one note each for “Life”, “Decisions” and “Resources”, for a total of 12 notes. At the top, identify the future and perspective; below, write only one specific observable state.
- Disconfirming-evidence slips
Quantity: 4 per group
Format: Sticky notes around 75 × 75 mm, or A4 copy paper cut into four pieces.
Do not buy specialised slips. Write “Disconfirming evidence” at the top of each paper slip. If participants write on them, use one item per slip and handwrite the necessary headings before the session starts.
- Sign slips
Quantity: 4 per group
Format: Sticky notes around 75 × 75 mm, or A4 copy paper cut into four pieces.
Do not buy specialised slips. Write “Sign” at the top of each paper slip. If participants write on them, use one item per slip and handwrite the necessary headings before the session starts.
- Table for checking evidence gaps
Quantity: 1 sheet per group plus 1 for whole-group consolidation
Format: Source material specification: A3 evidence-gap boards: one per group and one for whole-group consolidation
Source-bound format display correction; the other fixed helper-derived guidance is unchanged.
For each claim to check, create fields headed “What is known”, “Missing evidence”, “Where to check” and “Deadline”.
- Evidence-type cards
Quantity: 4 per group
Format: Sticky notes around 75 × 75 mm, or A4 copy paper cut into four pieces.
Do not buy specialised cards. Write “Evidence type” at the top of each paper slip. If participants write on them, use one item per slip and handwrite the necessary headings before the session starts.
- Surface for comparing options’ reversibility and cost
Quantity: 1 sheet per group plus 1 for whole-group consolidation
Format: Source material specification: A3 reversible/irreversible choice boards: one per group and one for whole-group consolidation
Source-bound format display correction; the other fixed helper-derived guidance is unchanged.
Label the vertical axis “Ease of reversal” and the horizontal axis “Cost of returning to the original state”, marking high and low at the ends of each axis. Place the options and leave room to add trial deadlines and withdrawal conditions.
- Trial-deadline cards
Quantity: 1 per selected option
Format: Sticky notes around 75 × 75 mm, or A4 copy paper cut into four pieces.
Do not buy specialised cards. Write “Trial deadline” at the top of each paper slip. If participants write on them, use one item per slip and handwrite the necessary headings before the session starts.
Setup for each method
Scenario Matrix
- Groups of 3–5, with at least 3 people in each
- One island table per group for the two-axis cross sheet
- One whole-group surface collecting signals from all 4 futures
Evidence Gap Board
- One surface per group with existing evidence and missing evidence side by side, without a dividing line
- Space outside each group’s surface for items not needed this time, equal to 30% of that surface
- One wall surface for ordering gaps by the nearest decision deadline
Reversible Choice Board
- One two-dimensional surface per group, with ease of reversal vertically and reversal cost horizontally; do not draw a scale
- Space along the bottom edge for a strip showing trial order, at least 10 cm wide per group
- One wall surface where trial deadlines can be arranged by week to reveal concentrations
When to switch or stop
Fallbacks
- 3 or more uncertainty axes remain.
Narrow them to 2 based on impact and independence, and record the others as supporting factors.
Method guide: Scenario Matrix
Stop conditions
- The loss limit or authority to withdraw has not been established.
- Do not approve the trial; record the matter as requiring confirmation.
- Specialist legal, financial or safety judgement becomes necessary.
- Remove the relevant proposal from the session and refer it for formal review.
Sources, rights and limits
This site has composed this programme’s purpose, method sequence, delivery instructions, roles, outputs and switching conditions. See each individual method page for that method’s sources and licences.
Original source records and their required notices are retained below. Their presence does not mean a new legal or cultural-safety clearance. Original citation titles are kept in their source language.
Sources and required notices for the 3 methods used
Scenario Matrix
- Government Office for Science: Scenario Matrix — Adaptation under OGL 3.0; changes made
- OGL 3.0
- Source: Government Office for Science: Scenario Matrix | https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/futures-toolkit-for-policy-makers-and-analysts/the-futures-toolkit-html | OGL 3.0 adaptation; changes made
- Source: OGL 3.0 | https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/
- Attribution: Government Office for Science | Original-source author and contributor credit
- Attribution: Taiwa no Fumen Editorial Team | Japanese adaptation and this site’s original illustrations
- Changes and adaptation: Adapted with changes as Japanese facilitation scores
- Cultural caution: open-method screening complete: Closed, ritual or sacred cultural practices are not used as sources; opting out, sensitive information and power differences are addressed in each method’s limits and branches.
- Limits of this record: The covered Crown copyright 2024 text was adapted with changes as a Japanese facilitation score under OGL v3.0. Third-party material, original diagrams, and logos were excluded.
Evidence Gap Board
- 対話の譜面編集部: 根拠の穴板 — Original description and diagrams
- Source: Taiwa no Fumen Editorial Team: Evidence Gap Board | Original description and diagrams
- Attribution: Taiwa no Fumen Editorial Team | This site’s text and illustrations
- Cultural caution: open-method screening complete: Closed, ritual or sacred cultural practices are not used as sources; opting out, sensitive information and power differences are addressed in each method’s limits and branches.
- Limits of this record: The editorial team independently created the text, procedures and diagrams. It claims no exclusive rights over general dialogue operations or ideas themselves.
Reversible Choice Board
- 対話の譜面編集部: 戻せる選択板 — Original description and diagrams
- Source: Taiwa no Fumen Editorial Team: Reversible Choice Board | Original description and diagrams
- Attribution: Taiwa no Fumen Editorial Team | This site’s text and illustrations
- Cultural caution: open-method screening complete: Closed, ritual or sacred cultural practices are not used as sources; opting out, sensitive information and power differences are addressed in each method’s limits and branches.
- Limits of this record: The editorial team independently created the text, procedures and diagrams. It claims no exclusive rights over general dialogue operations or ideas themselves.
Japanese resources and historical source records
Original Japanese plan and its print view · Japanese operation pack or starter materials
An English print edition is not provided here. The linked plans, print views and operation materials are Japanese resources.
Historical recorded publication holds
The following original hold statements are retained verbatim with their fixed source versions. They are not a statement of current acceptance, nor does this historical label resolve a source-specific restriction.
- English translation and rendered-page independent acceptance pending
- Method dependency source/text SHA binding and current source-specific rights verification pending
- Publication not cleared
Historical fixed-source and English-draft provenance
Japanese program SHA-256: 4284d39ce22d8cb8f4af3f454d7119d01a9874dc2a6c922ceee965c98a440071
Fixed source context SHA-256: be651be6dd4b89b2819e1d67c04cdf05b3d91625177e735c5854444dc8c0441d
English draft SHA-256: 5ddcdc10312ee3254a1e4e2b2114f4c76623ab4817e03b7358a2801c516a00b3
- evidence-gap-board: source
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b7ffde8b8c540998e4c9b28261cce82215d7a120ed73afc98adad22b1aa3c569; English drafte27de00d223b34d10532ac9b3197e55bd8e0c05e707fe84b6208c93ee89765a6 - scenario-matrix: source
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These hashes identify the checked inputs; they do not grant independent acceptance or publication clearance.