Futures, risk and change
Stress-test a Policy or Operating Proposal
Test a policy or operating proposal against multiple situations and specific cases where it does not work, and develop failure conditions and a reversible implementation proposal.
- People
- 4–20
- Session time
- 195 minutes
- Format
- In person
English session plan
Original program status: draft. Source safety category: Medium; this is not a guarantee of safety.
Preparation: High preparation. Facilitation team: Four roles, including an experienced facilitator.
What this session can decide
Propose weaknesses to address, stop conditions and a trial. Review legal compliance, effects on rights and formal policy decisions separately.
Outside its scope
- Do not replace legal review.
- Do not use counterexamples to criticise people’s character or departments.
- Do not treat a trial as full implementation.
Primary caution: Do not replace legal review.
Before starting
- Question and scope
- Test a policy or operating proposal against multiple situations and specific cases where it does not work, and develop failure conditions and a reversible implementation proposal. Before the session starts, state the subject and period to be covered in one sentence.
- What is decided here
- Propose weaknesses to address, stop conditions and a trial. Review legal compliance, effects on rights and formal policy decisions separately.
- Output recipient
- At the end, the Recorder retains “Trial scope, deadline and stop conditions”. Make the proposal suitable for a small trial while monitoring weaknesses.
- Participation and information boundaries
- Explain that people may pass, rest or leave, and keep personal information, confidential information and judgements about attributes off the recording surface. Assign Participant support separately.
- Operating team
- Assign the Lead facilitator, Recorder, Timekeeper and Participant support before starting, and confirm who announces transitions and stops.
- Next check
- Decide the review date for “Trial scope, deadline and stop conditions”, who may view it and who is responsible for the next decision.
Who takes responsibility
- Lead facilitator
Keep “Stress-test a Policy or Operating Proposal” within its purpose and stated exclusions, and announce the start and end of each stage.
From before the start until the session ends.
- Recorder
Record “List of what works, fails or is missing under each condition”, “Counterexamples, conditions for success and matters to check”, “Trial scope, deadline and stop conditions” at each stage and hand the records to their recipients at the end.
From preparation of recording surfaces before the start through storage after the session.
- Timekeeper
Notify the Lead facilitator 3 minutes before each stage ends and when switching to breaks or buffer time.
At the start of every stage and 3 minutes before its end.
- Participant support
Receive requests to pass, rest, leave or check individually, and decide with the Lead facilitator whether resumption is possible.
From before the start until the session ends.
Session flow
Minutes are measured from the session start. Method time, transition time, breaks and buffer are shown separately; they are not additional overlapping activities.
0–93 minutes
Test the proposal under multiple conditions
Method: Policy Stress-testing · 0–90 minutes. Transition: 90–93 minutes (3 minutes).
Test the proposal against conditions such as increased demand, resource shortages, missing information and differences between target groups or areas. Record what works, what fails and what remains insufficiently checked, together with supporting evidence.
Responsible: Lead facilitator; Recorder; Participant support
Output: List of what works, fails or is missing under each condition
Handoff: Pass important weaknesses to counterexample development.
This stage may be shortened only in accordance with the stated conditions.
93–126 minutes
Find counterexamples in a short time
Method: Counterexample Minute · 93–123 minutes. Transition: 123–126 minutes (3 minutes).
Write specific examples where the proposal’s assumptions do not hold, one at a time. Label each counterexample as outside scope, requiring additional conditions or requiring research.
Responsible: Lead facilitator; Recorder; Participant support
Output: Counterexamples, conditions for success and matters to check
Handoff: Pass the scope of applicability and stop conditions to the reversible proposal.
This stage is not marked as shortenable.
136–164 minutes
Convert the proposal into a trial that can be reversed
Method: Reversible Choice Board · 136–161 minutes. Transition: 161–164 minutes (3 minutes).
Create a trial proposal with a limited target, period and cost. Specify indicators for continuation, stop conditions and who is responsible for restoring the previous state.
Responsible: Lead facilitator; Recorder; Participant support
Output: Trial scope, deadline and stop conditions
Handoff: Pass weaknesses, counterexamples and the trial proposal to the person responsible for review.
This stage is not marked as shortenable.
What is retained and who receives it
List of what works, fails or is missing under each condition
Owner: Recorder
Identify proposals that work only under normal conditions.
Counterexamples, conditions for success and matters to check
Owner: Recorder
Show where the scope of applicability needs to be narrowed.
Trial scope, deadline and stop conditions
Owner: Recorder
Make the proposal suitable for a small trial while monitoring weaknesses.
Materials and setup
Material names, quantities, groups and handling instructions retain the fixed draft's original helper-derived guidance. Where a format is marked “Source material specification”, the entire bound English source material entry takes precedence over the old helper-derived format guidance. This format-only correction does not resolve other instruction or safety concerns. English names are not substituted into a Japanese-keyed lookup.
Everyday tools
- Pens
Quantity: 1 per person
Format: Dark broad-tip pens or whiteboard markers
Check that the ink flows and place the pens where participants can reach them. Avoid pale-coloured pens.
- Dark writing tools
Quantity: 1 per person
Format: Dark broad-tip pens or whiteboard markers
Check that the ink flows and place the pens where participants can reach them. Avoid pale-coloured pens.
- Selection sticky notes
Quantity: 3 per person
Format: Sticky notes around 75 × 75 mm, or A4 copy paper cut into four pieces.
Do not buy specialised notes. Write “Selection” at the top of each paper slip. If participants write on them, use one item per slip and handwrite the necessary headings before the session starts.
- Pens
Quantity: 1 per person
Format: Dark broad-tip pens or whiteboard markers
Check that the ink flows and place the pens where participants can reach them. Avoid pale-coloured pens.
Sheets to prepare by hand
- Policy slips
Quantity: 3 per group
Format: Sticky notes around 75 × 75 mm, or A4 copy paper cut into four pieces.
Create fields headed “Purpose” and “Assumptions” on one sheet. Write each heading in words rather than relying on colour alone.
- Future-condition cards
Quantity: 4 per group
Format: Sticky notes around 75 × 75 mm, or A4 copy paper cut into four pieces.
Write “Future condition” at the top, with a field for “Facts” below. Leave enough room for one item per card.
- Table for checking a policy under multiple future conditions
Quantity: 1 for the whole group
Format: Two A4 sheets placed side by side. Join them with masking tape if a larger surface is needed.
Create a cross-table with policies in rows and future conditions in columns. At each intersection, write a judgement of “Keep”, “Revise” or “Stop” and the reason. For “Revise”, add the conditions that trigger the revision.
- Paper slips for judging a policy under each future condition
Quantity: 12 per group
Format: Sticky notes around 75 × 75 mm, or A4 copy paper cut into four pieces.
Prepare 4 slips each headed “Keep”, “Revise” and “Stop”. On each slip, include fields for the reason for the judgement and, for “Revise”, the conditions that trigger the revision.
- Revision slips
Quantity: 3 for the whole group
Format: Sticky notes around 75 × 75 mm, or A4 copy paper cut into four pieces.
Write “Revision” at the top, with a field for “Trigger conditions” below. Leave enough room for one item per slip.
- Proposal cards
Quantity: 1 per proposal
Format: Source material specification: Proposal cards (1 per proposal, approximately A5)
Source-bound format display correction; the other fixed helper-derived guidance is unchanged.
Write “Proposal card” at the top. Retain the designated working surface and leave room for participants to place or write content.
- Counterexample cards
Quantity: 4 per person
Format: Source material specification: Counterexample cards (4 per person, approximately A6)
Source-bound format display correction; the other fixed helper-derived guidance is unchanged.
Do not buy specialised cards. Write “Counterexample” at the top of each paper slip. If participants write on them, use one item per slip and handwrite the necessary headings before the session starts.
- Shared surface for checking the conditions under which a proposal holds
Quantity: 1 surface
Format: Large-format paper or a whiteboard
Divide the working surface into 4 fields: “Proposal”, “Situations where it does not hold”, “Prerequisites for adoption” and “Proposal to test now, first condition to check and person responsible”. Write each heading in words rather than relying on colour alone.
- Surface for comparing options’ reversibility and cost
Quantity: 1 sheet per group plus 1 for whole-group consolidation
Format: Source material specification: A3 reversible/irreversible choice boards: one per group and one for whole-group consolidation
Source-bound format display correction; the other fixed helper-derived guidance is unchanged.
Label the vertical axis “Ease of reversal” and the horizontal axis “Cost of returning to the original state”, marking high and low at the ends of each axis. Place the options and leave room to add trial deadlines and withdrawal conditions.
- Trial-deadline cards
Quantity: 1 per selected option
Format: Sticky notes around 75 × 75 mm, or A4 copy paper cut into four pieces.
Do not buy specialised cards. Write “Trial deadline” at the top of each paper slip. If participants write on them, use one item per slip and handwrite the necessary headings before the session starts.
Setup for each method
Policy Stress-testing
- One island table per group of 3–6
- Give each group one policy and one set of future-condition cards
- One whole-group robustness table with policies as rows and future conditions as columns
Counterexample Minute
- One semicircle of chairs where everyone can see the proposal card
- One display surface for attaching counterexample cards by proposal
Reversible Choice Board
- One two-dimensional surface per group, with ease of reversal vertically and reversal cost horizontally; do not draw a scale
- Space along the bottom edge for a strip showing trial order, at least 10 cm wide per group
- One wall surface where trial deadlines can be arranged by week to reveal concentrations
When to switch or stop
Fallbacks
- There are more than 10 test conditions.
Limit the work to 5 conditions with high impact and high likelihood.
Method guide: Policy Stress-testing
Stop conditions
- Serious concerns about laws, rights or safety remain unresolved.
- Stop proposing the trial and refer the matter for specialist review.
- The group moves towards an implementation decision without checking with the people affected.
- Put the decision on hold and establish a way to check with the people affected.
Sources, rights and limits
This site has composed this programme’s purpose, method sequence, delivery instructions, roles, outputs and switching conditions. See each individual method page for that method’s sources and licences.
Original source records and their required notices are retained below. Their presence does not mean a new legal or cultural-safety clearance. Original citation titles are kept in their source language.
Sources and required notices for the 3 methods used
Policy Stress-testing
- Government Office for Science: Policy Stress-testing — Adaptation under OGL 3.0; changes made
- OGL 3.0
- Source: Government Office for Science: Policy Stress-testing | https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/futures-toolkit-for-policy-makers-and-analysts/the-futures-toolkit-html | OGL 3.0 adaptation; changes made
- Source: OGL 3.0 | https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/
- Attribution: Government Office for Science | Original-source author and contributor credit
- Attribution: Taiwa no Fumen Editorial Team | Japanese adaptation and this site’s original illustrations
- Changes and adaptation: Adapted with changes as Japanese facilitation scores
- Cultural caution: open-method screening complete: Closed, ritual or sacred cultural practices are not used as sources; opting out, sensitive information and power differences are addressed in each method’s limits and branches.
- Limits of this record: The covered Crown copyright 2024 text was adapted with changes as a Japanese facilitation score under OGL v3.0. Third-party material, original diagrams, and logos were excluded.
Counterexample Minute
- 対話の譜面編集部: 反例の一分 — Original description and diagrams
- Source: Taiwa no Fumen Editorial Team: Counterexample Minute | Original description and diagrams
- Attribution: Taiwa no Fumen Editorial Team | This site’s text and illustrations
- Cultural caution: open-method screening complete: Closed, ritual or sacred cultural practices are not used as sources; opting out, sensitive information and power differences are addressed in each method’s limits and branches.
- Limits of this record: The editorial team independently created the text, procedures and diagrams. It claims no exclusive rights over general dialogue operations or ideas themselves.
Reversible Choice Board
- 対話の譜面編集部: 戻せる選択板 — Original description and diagrams
- Source: Taiwa no Fumen Editorial Team: Reversible Choice Board | Original description and diagrams
- Attribution: Taiwa no Fumen Editorial Team | This site’s text and illustrations
- Cultural caution: open-method screening complete: Closed, ritual or sacred cultural practices are not used as sources; opting out, sensitive information and power differences are addressed in each method’s limits and branches.
- Limits of this record: The editorial team independently created the text, procedures and diagrams. It claims no exclusive rights over general dialogue operations or ideas themselves.
Historical fixed-draft notes
The original fixed draft notes are retained without deletion as historical records of those fixed source versions. Current material format corrections are separately identified above; these notes do not imply that other concerns have been resolved.
- The fixed sourceRaw for preparedMaterials.7 specifies A6, while its helper-produced format offers approximately 75×75 mm sticky notes or quartered A4 paper. The coordinator is separately investigating the A6-size helper issue. Both fixed source representations are retained without correction or a claim that these sizes are equivalent.
Japanese resources and historical source records
Original Japanese plan and its print view · Japanese operation pack or starter materials
An English print edition is not provided here. The linked plans, print views and operation materials are Japanese resources.
Historical recorded publication holds
The following original hold statements are retained verbatim with their fixed source versions. They are not a statement of current acceptance, nor does this historical label resolve a source-specific restriction.
- English translation and rendered-page independent acceptance pending
- Method dependency source/text SHA binding and current source-specific rights verification pending
- Publication not cleared
Historical fixed-source and English-draft provenance
Japanese program SHA-256: 0e212f227200ec5ca837efd03f0c364f38af286d6bc5224abd14eef2ce2ae6f9
Fixed source context SHA-256: 0d458a5d55924618a0266bb974061e98c07e4931d7e2e8a1f025ace12729d70a
English draft SHA-256: f1859d9bd9b26434c4f3251b15b01621f8c05cd73fd4629ea02b217d8848f3ee
- counterexample-minute: source
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363f909885b9b297381bc20588367e9a89f21df5a38f0a6f5534606d147cd365; English draft21981b0596c5ae1700fc47b0d2850bf37583c7c6d6ca7d190b69edc215d069d7 - reversible-choice-board: source
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These hashes identify the checked inputs; they do not grant independent acceptance or publication clearance.