Futures, risk and change
Prepare Options Across Multiple Futures
Build multiple scenarios from signs of change and organise their ripple effects and preparations that apply across them.
- People
- 6–30
- Session time
- 330 minutes
- Format
- In person
English session plan
Original program status: draft. Source safety category: Low; this is not a guarantee of safety.
Preparation: High preparation. Facilitation team: 3 organising roles.
What this session can decide
Create scenarios for discussion and candidates for monitoring. Do not use them as forecasts, declarations of crisis or investment authorisations.
Outside its scope
- Do not treat only the most desirable future as the forecast.
- Do not assign numerical probabilities without evidence.
- Do not make investment decisions on scenarios alone.
Primary caution: Do not treat only the most desirable future as the forecast.
Before starting
- Question and scope
- Build multiple scenarios from signs of change and organise their ripple effects and preparations that apply across them. Before the session starts, state the subject and period to be covered in one sentence.
- What is decided here
- Create scenarios for discussion and candidates for monitoring. Do not use them as forecasts, declarations of crisis or investment authorisations.
- Output recipient
- At the end, the Recorder retains “Ripple-effect diagrams for each scenario”. Distinguish common preparations from scenario-specific responses.
- Participation and information boundaries
- Let people choose to participate by speaking, writing, or passing. Keep personal information, confidential information, and assessments based on personal attributes off the record surfaces.
- Operating team
- Assign the Lead facilitator, Recorder, and Timekeeper before starting, and confirm who announces switches and stops.
- Next check
- Decide the review date for “Ripple-effect diagrams for each scenario”, who may view it and who is responsible for the next decision.
Who takes responsibility
- Lead facilitator
Keep “Prepare Options Across Multiple Futures” within its purpose and stated exclusions, and announce the start and end of each stage.
From before the start until the session ends.
- Recorder
Record “List of signs, information sources and uncertainties”, “Four scenarios and their assumptions”, “Ripple-effect diagrams for each scenario” at each stage and hand the records to their recipients at the end.
From preparation of recording surfaces before the start through storage after the session.
- Timekeeper
Notify the Lead facilitator 3 minutes before each stage ends and when switching to breaks or buffer time.
At the start of every stage and 3 minutes before its end.
Session flow
Minutes are measured from the session start. Method time, transition time, breaks and buffer are shown separately; they are not additional overlapping activities.
0–93 minutes
Gather signs of change
Method: Horizon Scanning · 0–90 minutes. Transition: 90–93 minutes (3 minutes).
Collect signs of institutional, technological, social and environmental change, with information sources and checking dates. Distinguish facts, interpretations and weak signals, and record uncertainties.
Responsible: Lead facilitator; Recorder; Timekeeper
Output: List of signs, information sources and uncertainties
Handoff: Pass signs with high impact and high uncertainty to the scenario-axis work.
This stage may be shortened only in accordance with the stated conditions.
93–216 minutes
Develop accounts of different futures
Method: Scenario Matrix · 93–213 minutes. Transition: 213–216 minutes (3 minutes).
Use 2 largely independent uncertainties as axes to create 4 quadrants. In each quadrant, describe stakeholders’ behaviour, opportunities, barriers and early signs.
Responsible: Lead facilitator; Recorder; Timekeeper
Output: Four scenarios and their assumptions
Handoff: Pass important changes in each scenario to ripple-effect analysis.
This stage is not marked as shortenable.
226–289 minutes
Explore first- and second-order effects
Method: Futures Wheel · 226–286 minutes. Transition: 286–289 minutes (3 minutes).
Starting with important changes in each scenario, draw direct effects and effects further along the chain. Mark preparations common to multiple scenarios and scenario-specific signs to monitor.
Responsible: Lead facilitator; Recorder; Timekeeper
Output: Ripple-effect diagrams for each scenario
Handoff: Pass the scenarios, ripple effects and signs to monitor to the person responsible for strategy.
This stage is not marked as shortenable.
What is retained and who receives it
List of signs, information sources and uncertainties
Owner: Recorder
Develop evidence-backed candidates for scenario axes.
Four scenarios and their assumptions
Owner: Recorder
Test options without fixing on a single forecast.
Ripple-effect diagrams for each scenario
Owner: Recorder
Distinguish common preparations from scenario-specific responses.
Materials and setup
Material names, quantities, groups and handling instructions retain the fixed draft's original helper-derived guidance. Where a format is marked “Source material specification”, the entire bound English source material entry takes precedence over the old helper-derived format guidance. This format-only correction does not resolve other instruction or safety concerns. English names are not substituted into a Japanese-keyed lookup.
Everyday tools
- Pens
Quantity: 1 per person
Format: Dark broad-tip pens or whiteboard markers
Check that the ink flows and place the pens where participants can reach them. Avoid pale-coloured pens.
- Marks identifying major changes
Quantity: 2 per person
Format: Pen marks. Use round stickers only if anonymity or movement is needed.
Use pen marks by default. Divide round stickers by participant count only if repositioning or anonymous collection is needed.
Sheets to prepare by hand
- Signal cards
Quantity: 4 per person
Format: Sticky notes around 75 × 75 mm, or A4 copy paper cut into four pieces.
Write “Signal” at the top, with a field for “Source and date” below. Leave enough room for one item per card.
- Marks identifying novelty, impact and uncertainty separately
Quantity: 3 sets per person
Format: Sticky notes around 75 × 75 mm, or A4 copy paper cut into four pieces.
Write “Novelty”, “Impact” and “Uncertainty” on separate sheets, preparing the required number of each type. Distinguish types by their written headings even if the paper is the same colour.
- Long paper for grouping
Quantity: 1 sheet per group
Format: Two A4 sheets placed side by side. Join them with masking tape if a larger surface is needed.
Write “Long paper for grouping” at the top. Leave enough space to arrange sticky notes or paper slips without overlap, and use lettering that can be read from a distance during whole-group sharing.
- Uncertainty cards
Quantity: 6 per person
Format: Sticky notes around 75 × 75 mm, or A4 copy paper cut into four pieces.
Write a factor whose future is uncertain in the centre. Below it, create two endpoint fields: “Observable state at one end” and “Observable state at the opposite end”. Describe states that can actually be distinguished, rather than good and bad.
- Surface for creating four futures from two uncertainties
Quantity: 1 sheet per group
Format: Source material specification: One two-axis cross sheet per group, approximately A2 size
Source-bound format display correction; the other fixed helper-derived guidance is unchanged.
Draw vertical and horizontal axes that cross in the centre. Write the two poles of the selected uncertainty A at the ends of the horizontal axis and the two poles of uncertainty B at the ends of the vertical axis. Leave room in the four quadrants for future descriptions and signs.
- Sticky notes describing how life, decisions and resources change in four futures
Quantity: 12 per group
Format: Sticky notes around 75 × 75 mm, or A4 copy paper cut into four pieces.
For each of the four futures, prepare one note each for “Life”, “Decisions” and “Resources”, for a total of 12 notes. At the top, identify the future and perspective; below, write only one specific observable state.
- Disconfirming-evidence slips
Quantity: 4 per group
Format: Sticky notes around 75 × 75 mm, or A4 copy paper cut into four pieces.
Do not buy specialised slips. Write “Disconfirming evidence” at the top of each paper slip. If participants write on them, use one item per slip and handwrite the necessary headings before the session starts.
- Sign slips
Quantity: 4 per group
Format: Sticky notes around 75 × 75 mm, or A4 copy paper cut into four pieces.
Do not buy specialised slips. Write “Sign” at the top of each paper slip. If participants write on them, use one item per slip and handwrite the necessary headings before the session starts.
- Starting-point cards
Quantity: 1 sheet per group
Format: Sticky notes around 75 × 75 mm, or A4 copy paper cut into four pieces.
Write “Starting point” at the top, with a field for “Period covered” below. Leave enough room for one item per card.
- Effect cards
Quantity: 16 per group
Format: Sticky notes around 75 × 75 mm, or A4 copy paper cut into four pieces.
Write “Effect” at the top, with a field for “Order” below. Leave enough room for one item per card.
- Arrows linking causes and effects
Quantity: 16 arrows per group
Format: Masking tape or A4 copy paper cut into long, narrow strips
Draw an arrow from cause to effect on each paper slip and write one sentence explaining why that relationship occurs. Place it between the cause and effect cards, aligning the arrow’s direction. Always draw the arrow from cause to effect.
- Chain slips
Quantity: 2 per group
Format: Sticky notes around 75 × 75 mm, or A4 copy paper cut into four pieces.
Do not buy specialised slips. Write “Chain” at the top of each paper slip. If participants write on them, use one item per slip and handwrite the necessary headings before the session starts.
Setup for each method
Horizon Scanning
- One island table per group of 3–6, with group sizes differing by no more than 1 person
- One whole-group surface showing the 3 criteria of novelty, impact, and uncertainty
- One pending area for cards whose sources cannot be identified
Scenario Matrix
- Groups of 3–5, with at least 3 people in each
- One island table per group for the two-axis cross sheet
- One whole-group surface collecting signals from all 4 futures
Futures Wheel
- One island table per group of 3–6
- One radial surface per group with space to branch from the starting point through three stages
- One whole-group outer band for collecting important chains
When to switch or stop
Fallbacks
- There are more than 30 signs.
Limit the list to 8 signs with both high impact and high uncertainty.
Method guide: Horizon Scanning
Stop conditions
- Unsupported probabilities or categorical forecasts are added to the materials.
- Remove the probability notation and return to assumptions and uncertainty.
- Group behaviour is described using discriminatory stereotypes.
- Delete that description and replace it with institutions, environments and observable behaviour.
Sources, rights and limits
This site has composed this programme’s purpose, method sequence, delivery instructions, roles, outputs and switching conditions. See each individual method page for that method’s sources and licences.
Original source records and their required notices are retained below. Their presence does not mean a new legal or cultural-safety clearance. Original citation titles are kept in their source language.
Sources and required notices for the 3 methods used
Horizon Scanning
- Government Office for Science: Horizon Scanning — Adaptation under OGL 3.0; changes made
- OGL 3.0
- Source: Government Office for Science: Horizon Scanning | https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/futures-toolkit-for-policy-makers-and-analysts/the-futures-toolkit-html | OGL 3.0 adaptation; changes made
- Source: OGL 3.0 | https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/
- Attribution: Government Office for Science | Original-source author and contributor credit
- Attribution: Taiwa no Fumen Editorial Team | Japanese adaptation and this site’s original illustrations
- Changes and adaptation: Adapted with changes as Japanese facilitation scores
- Cultural caution: open-method screening complete: Closed, ritual or sacred cultural practices are not used as sources; opting out, sensitive information and power differences are addressed in each method’s limits and branches.
- Limits of this record: The covered Crown copyright 2024 text was adapted with changes as a Japanese facilitation score under OGL v3.0. Third-party material, original diagrams, and logos were excluded.
Scenario Matrix
- Government Office for Science: Scenario Matrix — Adaptation under OGL 3.0; changes made
- OGL 3.0
- Source: Government Office for Science: Scenario Matrix | https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/futures-toolkit-for-policy-makers-and-analysts/the-futures-toolkit-html | OGL 3.0 adaptation; changes made
- Source: OGL 3.0 | https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/
- Attribution: Government Office for Science | Original-source author and contributor credit
- Attribution: Taiwa no Fumen Editorial Team | Japanese adaptation and this site’s original illustrations
- Changes and adaptation: Adapted with changes as Japanese facilitation scores
- Cultural caution: open-method screening complete: Closed, ritual or sacred cultural practices are not used as sources; opting out, sensitive information and power differences are addressed in each method’s limits and branches.
- Limits of this record: The covered Crown copyright 2024 text was adapted with changes as a Japanese facilitation score under OGL v3.0. Third-party material, original diagrams, and logos were excluded.
Futures Wheel
- Government Office for Science: Futures Wheel — Adaptation under OGL 3.0; changes made
- OGL 3.0
- Source: Government Office for Science: Futures Wheel | https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/futures-toolkit-for-policy-makers-and-analysts/the-futures-toolkit-html | OGL 3.0 adaptation; changes made
- Source: OGL 3.0 | https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/
- Attribution: Government Office for Science | Original-source author and contributor credit
- Attribution: Taiwa no Fumen Editorial Team | Japanese adaptation and this site’s original illustrations
- Changes and adaptation: Adapted with changes as Japanese facilitation scores
- Cultural caution: open-method screening complete: Closed, ritual or sacred cultural practices are not used as sources; opting out, sensitive information and power differences are addressed in each method’s limits and branches.
- Limits of this record: The covered Crown copyright 2024 text was adapted with changes as a Japanese facilitation score under OGL v3.0. Third-party material, original diagrams, and logos were excluded.
Japanese resources and historical source records
Original Japanese plan and its print view · Japanese operation pack or starter materials
An English print edition is not provided here. The linked plans, print views and operation materials are Japanese resources.
Historical recorded publication holds
The following original hold statements are retained verbatim with their fixed source versions. They are not a statement of current acceptance, nor does this historical label resolve a source-specific restriction.
- English translation and rendered-page independent acceptance pending
- Method dependency source/text SHA binding and current source-specific rights verification pending
- Publication not cleared
Historical fixed-source and English-draft provenance
Japanese program SHA-256: e52b1cad2d811a745d24661af49da590412e51862a40468d44ca41bc17d8f8ea
Fixed source context SHA-256: 864a13fdc71e167c9c6461e20c463ae565de3158077ce07d32871bf378058f0c
English draft SHA-256: 7ec5d5163f02445e03cf5ebe5516be0ab97f99aa3c7ade0645bf2e28add9adb6
- futures-wheel: source
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These hashes identify the checked inputs; they do not grant independent acceptance or publication clearance.